UFC 313 Preview & Predictions: Will Alex Pereira’s Light Heavyweight Reign End Against Magomed Ankalaev?

UFC 313 is set to take over Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena this Saturday night, bringing fight fans a stacked card headlined by light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira defending his title against the dangerous Magomed Ankalaev. This showdown has all the ingredients for an electrifying main event, with Pereira looking to solidify his dominance while Ankalaev seeks to finally claim UFC gold.

Beyond the main event, UFC 313’s fight card is loaded with high-stakes matchups, including a must-see rematch between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev. With so much on the line, let’s dive into this roundtable discussion and break down the biggest questions ahead of this pivotal pay-per-view event.

1. Is Magomed Ankalaev a Nightmare Matchup for Alex Pereira?

For years, people have speculated that certain fighters could be Pereira’s kryptonite—but is Ankalaev truly the man to dethrone him?

Petesy Carroll:

I’ve never bought into the narrative that Magomed Ankalaev is a light heavyweight version of Khabib Nurmagomedov. Yes, he’s a well-rounded fighter with strong wrestling, but the idea that he’ll simply dominate Pereira on the mat is an oversimplification of this fight.

That being said, this is undoubtedly Pereira’s toughest test at 205 pounds. His title reign has been built on short-notice fights and opponents who, for various reasons, weren’t in ideal shape to challenge for a championship.

Jan Blachowicz pushed him to the limit in his divisional debut.
Jiri Prochazka was coming off an injury when Pereira stopped him.
Jamahal Hill had just returned from surgery before getting finished.
Khalil Rountree Jr. wasn’t even a top contender when he got the title shot.

Ankalaev, however, has long been the most deserving contender. He’s been waiting for this opportunity, and unlike Pereira’s past opponents, he’s at full strength. That said, I still believe Pereira can win this fight—he’s a special kind of striker with the power to turn any fight around in an instant.

Chuck Mindenhall:

Speaking with Pereira’s camp last week, they practically laughed at the idea that Ankalaev is a threat. There’s a strong belief that even if Ankalaev tries to wrestle, he won’t be able to control Pereira.

At Glover Teixeira’s gym, Pereira is constantly working with high-level grapplers who try to drag him to the mat. His team also thinks that Jan Blachowicz actually beat Ankalaev when they fought for the vacant title in 2022 (which ended in a draw). And since Pereira clearly defeated Blachowicz, they see no reason why Ankalaev should be favored.

But here’s what I can’t ignore: Ankalaev hasn’t lost in 13 straight fights. He’s flying under the radar, but he’s coming in hungry and motivated—especially after fasting for Ramadan. This is a dangerous fight for Pereira, no matter how confident his camp may be.

2. If Pereira Wins, Should He Fight Jon Jones, Tom Aspinall, or Someone Else?

Chuck:

If Pereira defends his title, we enter a fascinating “choose your own adventure” scenario. There are several intriguing paths he could take, but history tells us that the fight game is unpredictable—just look at Kamaru Usman, who was talking about boxing Canelo Alvarez before Leon Edwards knocked him out cold.

Believe it or not, I think there’s even a chance that Pereira vs. Oleksandr Usyk in boxing could happen. With TKO Group Holdings (UFC’s parent company) now involved in boxing, this crossover fight is more realistic than ever before.

If we stick to MMA, the biggest names in play are:

Jon Jones: The dream fight, but with Jones locked in negotiations with the UFC, it might not happen.
Tom Aspinall: If Jones refuses to fight, Aspinall becomes the next best option at heavyweight.
Dricus Du Plessis: The middleweight champ could move up for a superfight.

If I had to choose, Pereira vs. Jones is the fight to make. But realistically, Aspinall is the more likely opponent.

Petesy:

Based on what Tom Aspinall and his manager Malki Kawa have said recently, it sounds like Jon Jones has a specific financial demand for his next fight—and he won’t accept anything less.

Historically, UFC doesn’t cave to heavyweight demands. If Jones doesn’t budge, the UFC won’t reward him with a massive payday. That leaves Aspinall as the most logical next opponent for Pereira.

A fight with Jones would attract more attention, but Aspinall vs. Pereira is a better fight stylistically.

3. Does the UFC Want Magomed Ankalaev as Champion?

Petesy:

Let’s be real—the UFC isn’t exactly excited about the idea of Ankalaev as champion. He’s a dominant fighter, but he’s not marketable. When he fought Blachowicz for the vacant title, the UFC didn’t even give him a rematch after a draw. Instead, they moved on with Pereira and Prochazka.

Pereira, on the other hand, is a superstar:

He makes viral videos.
He drives a Lamborghini around Danbury, Connecticut.
He wrestles Glover Teixeira in the snow.
He’s a global icon.

There’s no doubt—the UFC would much rather keep Pereira as champion.

Chuck:

Could Ankalaev become a big star? Maybe—but it’s unlikely. He’s not a Khabib-level personality, and his lack of English makes promotion difficult.

The UFC books fights fairly, but they also favor marketable champions. And right now, Pereira is the face of the division.

4. What’s at Stake for Justin Gaethje in His Rematch with Rafael Fiziev?

Chuck:

When Gaethje and Fiziev first fought, I thought Fiziev was going to take over. Instead, Gaethje left him looking like he had fallen off a cliff.

If Fiziev wins this time, it would confirm that he was always the better fighter. But if Gaethje wins, he remains a major force in the division.

Either way, this fight is going to be absolute chaos.

Petesy:

Gaethje, at 36, is coming off the worst knockout loss of his career. If he loses again, his title aspirations are likely over.

For Fiziev, this is a chance for revenge and a huge step forward in the lightweight division.

5. Outside the Main Events, What’s the Best Fight on the Card?

Petesy:

Bobby King vs. Mauricio Ruffy is going to be an all-out war. If it goes the distance, I’ll eat my hat.

Chuck:

I’m going with Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes. Turner needs a win badly, and Bahamondes will be the perfect dance partner for a wild fight.

Final Thoughts: Can Pereira Keep His Throne?

UFC 313 is set to be an unforgettable event. Will Pereira defend his title? Or will Ankalaev finally claim the belt? Tune in Saturday night to find out!